Tag Archives: Solar Weather

ARRL Propagation Bulletin


Welcome to the “ARRL Propagation Bulletin” update from Big Island ARRL News.

Views expressed in this Amateur/Ham Radio news summary are those of the reporters and correspondents.

Content supplied by HQ ARRL, 225 Main Street, Newington, CT, 06111, W1AW, and Tad Cook (K7RA).

Accessed on 06 April 2019, 1955 UTC, Post 925.

Source (via email):

http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP014/2019

Please click link or scroll down to read the complete bulletin.

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP14
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14  ARLP014
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  April 5, 2019
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspots have been coming and going, and now this week they
returned.

No sunspots were seen from January 31 through March 4, then from
March 13 to 17, and again March 25 to 30.  They returned on Sunday,
March 31 but only lasted four days, through Wednesday, April 3.
Sunspot numbers over that period were 14, 17, 18 and 17.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 16 in last week's report
to 9.4 this week. Average daily solar flux declined from 75.2 to
69.5. Average daily planetary A index rose from 3.7 to 8.4, while
average middle latitude A index went from 3.9 to 7.3.

Predicted solar flux is 70 on April 5 to 11, 69 on April 12 and 13,
70 on April 14 to 22, then 69, 68, 69 and 69 on April 23 to 26, 70
on April 27 through May 7, 69 on May 8 to 10, and 70 on May 11 to
19.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10, 12 and 8 on April 5 to 8, 5
on April 9 to 11, then 15 and 8 on April 12 and 13, 5 on April 14 to
23, then 10, 8, 5, 8, 10 and 8 on April 24 to 29, 10 on April 30
through May 1, 8 on May 2 and 3, 10 on May 4, 5 on May 5 to 8, then
15 and 8 on May 9 and 10, and 5 on May 11 to 19.

In last week's bulletin ARLP013 we presented a message from Dr.
Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW in which she complained about overhyped space
weather stories in the mainstream press. I think we may have seen
another example this week from a British tabloid:

https://bit.ly/2I95JkS

This was published on Wednesday when the planetary A index was
slightly unsettled at 12, on Thursday it was 8, and predicted values
of 12, 10, 12 and 8 follow on April 5 to 8 and 5 on April 9 and 10.
This is not expected to cause blow outs of "electrical transformers
and power stations," as mentioned in the article, nor "leave people
vulnerable to cancer".

The story was picked up by another UK publication:

https://bit.ly/2YQ0yMI

Note they quote Spaceweather.com predicting only "a minor stream of
solar wind."

The Washington Post also addressed this issue:

https://wapo.st/2CHJKxS

F. K. Janda, OK1HH sends us his geomagnetic activity forecast for
the period April 5 til May 1, 2019.

"Geomagnetic field will be: 
Quiet on April 9, 14, 17 to 19, 
Quiet to unsettled on April 5 to 8, 16, 20, 26, 
Quiet to active on April (15, 21 to 23,) 24, 27 to 29, May 1 
Unsettled to active on April (10 -) 11, 13, 25, 30 
Active to disturbed April (12) 

Solar wind will intensify on on April (6,) 12 and 13, 15 and 16, (19
to 22,) 23 and 24, (25 to 30, May 1)

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Mike Schaeffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania wrote on Thursday
night:

"Spring season high frequency band Es is slowly emerging out of its
dormant state. On Friday, April 5, 0100 UTC (Thursday, April 4, 9:00
PM EDT local) I was monitoring the 11 meter Citizen Band (27 MHz)
and noticed a swooshing, light fading condition on channel (28),
which is normally inactive. All of a sudden like a flick of a light
switch Es emerged from the states of GA, AL and LA. The average
distance from Easton, PA was about 1,000 miles. Activity lasted for
a brief time of about ten minutes. This occurred one hour,
thirty-two minutes after local sunset (7:28 PM). 10.7cm flux = 70."

Thanks to John Pieszcynski, W2FV of Trout Lake, Washington for his
tip on problems with satellite debris during solar minimum, from Dr.
Tony Phillips of Spaceweather.com:

https://bit.ly/2CZyxsD

At 2345 UTC on Monday, April 1 Steve Sacco, NN4X in Florida sent
this query about something I otherwise heard nothing about:

"Is there some kind of solar event going on?  I don't see anything
of note at SolarHam.com.  

Several folks across the U.S. are hearing an extremely broad-band
noise in the 30M area. I'm not able to peak it from any heading with
my 2L Yagi."

The latest from Dr. Skov:

https://youtu.be/_dRoznalAg4

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for March 28 through April 3, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 14,
17, 18, and 17, with a mean of 9.4. 10.7 cm flux was 68.4, 68.8,
69.4, 69.5, 69.3, 70.8, and 70.6, with a mean of 69.5. Estimated
planetary A indices were 11, 7, 4, 11, 8, 6, and 12, with a mean of
8.4. Middle latitude A index was 10, 6, 3, 9, 6, 5, and 12, with a
mean of 7.3.
NNNN
/EX

ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA


Welcome to an “Amateur/Ham Radio News” update from Big Island ARRL News.

Views expressed in this news summary are those of the reporters and correspondents.

Content provided by HQ ARRL, 225 Main Street, Newington, CT, 06111 and broadcast by W1AW.

Accessed on 29 March 2019, 2335 UTC, Post 915.

Source (via email):

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/h/d8umkylh1i3k/?&th=169cbb6c8c99d93a&v=c

Please click link or scroll down to read the full propagation forecast.

Editor:  Tad Cook (K7RA).

“SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP013
ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP13
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 13  ARLP013
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  March 29, 2019
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP013
ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA

During our reporting week (March 21-27) solar activity increased
while geomagnetic indicators were lower, compared to the previous
seven days. This is a nice combination for the first week of spring.

Although sunspots and solar flux decreased toward the end of the
period, average daily sunspot numbers doubled from 8 to 16, and
average daily solar flux increased from 70.7 to 75.2.

Average daily planetary A index decreased from 8.1 to 3.7, and
average daily middle latitude A index decreased from 6.3 to 3.9.

These numbers are all good, because higher sunspot numbers and solar
flux suggest better enhancement of the ionosphere while the lower
geomagnetic numbers correspond to generally lower absorption or
disturbed conditions.

The planetary A index is a composite from magnetometers around the
globe, but the middle latitude A index is from a single magnetometer
in Virginia.

Predicted solar flux from the March 28 forecast is 68 on March 29
through April 4, 70 on April 5-6, then 71 and 74 on April 7-8, 75 on
April 9-18, then 74, 73, 73 and 71 on April 19-22, 70 on April 23
through May 3, 71 and 74 on May 4-5, and 75 on May 6-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 29, 8 on March 30 through
April 2, 6 and 8 on April 3-4, 5 on April 5-11, then 15 and 10 on
April 12-13, 5 on April 14-21, then 8, 12, 12, 8 and 8 on April
22-26, 5 on April 27-28, 8 on April 29-30, 5 on May 1-8, then 12, 8,
5 and 5 on May 9-12.

The above predictions for solar flux and A index are updated daily
at, ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ .

There have been no sunspots on March 26-28. Here is an image of
sunspot group AR2736 from March 23, a few days before it
disappeared:

https://bit.ly/2utHqGj

From F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

“Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 29 til April 27,
2019.

“Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on March 31, April 11, 16, 18-21, 27
Quiet to unsettled on March April 1-4, 11-12, 22, 25-26
Quiet to active on March 30, April 6-10, 15, 23-24
Unsettled to active on March 29, April 5, 13-14, 17

“Solar wind will intensify on March 29 (- 30), April (2-6,) 12-13,
15-16.

“Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.”

NN4X reported:

“12M 3/28/2019

“I decided to call CQ into a ‘dead’ band, and soon saw
PSKReporter.info showing I was heard in EA8. I continued calling and
soon had QSOs with EA8, PY, KP4 and LU, and was heard in France and
EA.

“17M 3/26/2019

“Looking for E6, I worked VK2FR, VK6YM, VK4EM and ZL3NB instead on a
seemingly dead band. I worked E6 on 3/27 at 21:41Z.

“I wish more folks would occasionally let loose with some CQs, to
determine if we have any propagation.

“12M opened up again after my previous e-mail.

“Additional countries worked included EA6, F, ZD7 and YV. I heard
CT, and the opening extended into EU.

“I had to leave after 5:00 PM local so was not able to look west for
any late afternoon/early evening openings, although I don’t see
anything posted to DX Cluster.

“Once again, it pays to make some noise; you never know who’s
listening, or where.”

The CQ World Wide WPX SSB Contest is this weekend.

See https://www.cqwpx.com/

The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

“Dear Tad,

“What happened nationwide this past week was a tragedy– it did not
need to happen. It’s always personally painful to me when some
members of the media spot a ‘solar storm opportunity.’ Without
thinking, they jump on these storms and hype them beyond
recognition. Seduced by the allure of aurora views and a world of
science-fiction adventure, people from all over then embark on a
solar storm crusade. They pack their bags, and their cars, and head
hundreds of miles towards the poles singing victory songs with stars
in their eyes. Their trip begins with enthusiasm, awe, and wonder,
but it ends tragically. It leaves many feeling confused and left out
in the dark and cold (literally) as they look skyward for an aurora
show that never comes.

“Events like these are stark reminders of why it’s so critical we
continue to push forward to create a field of Space Weather
broadcasting. When the media runs amok, omitting critical aspects of
Space Weather that make forecasting so difficult and aurora so
elusive, it traps everyone in its web. You, me, and especially the
uninitiated. But there is a bright spark I am beginning to see. Far
more than ever before, I saw this community push back on the hype.
What is more– I watched as journalists and meteorologists alike,
learned from us.  As in the picture above, I saw proof we are
winning the battle. We are slowly pushing back against the media
veil that continues to keep Space Weather shrouded in mystery. I
know a huge part of our success is due to you, and I am eternally
grateful.

“As for this week’s forecast, our Sun calms down a bit as rogue
region 2736 rotates to the Sun’s backside. We won’t see it again for
another two weeks. This means emergency, shortwave, and amateur
radio propagation tanks again on Earth’s day side, even as GPS
reception improves. We also get another chance for a solar storm
from a small pocket of fast wind that is already brightening the
aurora again. So at least that is good news for aurora hopefuls, who
missed out on the show this past week. Too bad no media are
reporting on the aurora viewing chances now. They’re actually better
than during the peak of the hype. So much for a fizzle and a frenzy.
“Cheers, Tamitha.”

Her latest video is, https://youtu.be/I4TiyYm1u4s .

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for March 21 through 27, 2019 were 49, 27, 22, 14,
0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 16. 10.7 cm flux was 80.1, 82.4, 79.4,
75.4, 71.2, 69, and 68.9, with a mean of 75.2. Estimated planetary A
indices were 2, 1, 1, 3, 5, 6, and 8, with a mean of 3.7. Middle
latitude A index was 2, 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, and 8, with a mean of 3.9.
NNNN
/EX”


For the latest Amateur/Ham Radio news and information, please check the blog sidebars and links.  These news feeds are updated daily and weekly.  Thanks for joining us today.

Aloha es 73 de Russell Roberts (KH6JRM)

Public Information Coordinator

Hawaii County, ARRL Pacific Section

https://bigislandarrlnews.com

ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA


Welcome to the ARRL Propagation Forecast from Big Island ARRL News.

Views expressed in this Amateur/Ham Radio propagation summary are those of the reporters and correspondents.

Content provided by W1AW, HQ ARRL, Newington, CT, 06111, and Tad Cook (K7RA).

Accessed on 16 March 2019, 0655 UTC, Post 898.

Source:

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=rm#label/ARRL+website/FMfcgxwBWKQxDkHFTmtPCHPvMMmlQNGf

Please click link or scroll down to read the full propagation forecast from Tad Cook (K7RA) and his volunteer staff of observers.

“SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011
ARLP011 Propagation de K7RAZCZC AP11
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11  ARLP011
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  March 15, 2019
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP011
ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspots reemerged for 8 days on March 5-12. Average daily sunspot
numbers rose from 4.4 in last week’s bulletin to 9.9 this week
(March 7-13). Average daily solar flux barely changed, from 70.6 to
70.9. Average planetary A index declined from 12.6 to 5.1, and
average middle latitude A index from 9.7 to 3.9.

The Vernal Equinox will occur next Wednesday, March 20 when the
southern and northern hemispheres will be bathed in equal amounts of
solar radiation.

Predicted solar flux is 70 on March 15-17, 68 on March 18-22, 69 on
March 23-28, 70 on March 29, 71 on March 30 through April 8, 70 on
April 9, 69 on April 10-24, 70 on April 25 and 71 on April 26-28.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 8 and 8 on March 15-17, 5 on
March 18-19, 10 on March 20, 5 on March 21-25, then 12, 30, 28, 14
and 8 on March 26-30, 5 on March 31 through April 1, 8 on April 2-3,
5 on April 4-9, then 12, 10 and 8 on April 10-12, 5 on April 13-15,
10 on April 16, 5 on April 17-21, then 10, 26, 24, 12 and 8 on April
22-26 and 5 on April 27-28.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 15 to April 13,
2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

“Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on March 22-24, 31, April 4-9. 13
Quiet to unsettled on March 16-18, 25, April 1-3, 11-12
Quiet to active on March 19-21, April 10
Unsettled to active on March 15, 26, 29-30
Active to disturbed on March 27-28

“Solar wind will intensify on March (15,) 21-22, 25-28, April 1, (2,
5)

“Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.”

Australia’s Space Weather Services issued a geomagnetic disturbance
warning at 0003 UTC on March 15: “Increased geomagnetic activity
expected due to coronal hole high speed wind stream on March 15-16,
2019.

“15 March: Unsettled to Active, possible Minor Storm periods for
High latitudes.  16 March: Quiet to Unsettled”

Jim DeYoung, N8OQ sent this interesting question on March 13:

“I have been wondering about the fact the north magnetic pole has
been shifting towards Russia significantly and therefore are there
any expected resultant significant shifts in the auroral oval that
would affect propagation to/from North America or to Asia?

“The reason I ask is I made probably my best QSO of all time a few
weeks ago during the CQ 160m Phone contest.  I always run QRP for
that contest as a good test of my operating skills (ears), noise
levels, rigs, and most importantly my antenna.  I have used for many
years a 93-meter horizontal loop fed with about 24 meters of window
line up generously about 13 meters.  The ‘loop’ is kind of more like
a trapezoid but actually what is called a scalene.

“For my station I had very good propagation conditions for the CQ
160m Phone contest.  Heard ZF9, ZF2, PJ4 (2x), TO4, C6, HQ9, OK7 and
others I didn’t write down. Didn’t work any of them as expected at 5
watts QRP phone.

“However, on February 24 at 0417 UTC I worked UA7K with 5 watts on
1.838 LSB!  At his twilight sunrise on the north-east side of the
Black Sea.  Apparently one of those fabled 160m enhancements at a
station sunrise/sunset.  Easy!  Called once not expecting a thing.
A short pause on his end.  I hear N8OQ.  I give RR.  He gives me his
CQ Zone 16.  I report Victor Alpha Virginia.  He gives roger and in
the log he goes.  LOTW QSL received a few days later! WOW!

“The QSO was so easy I soon began to think I must have been hearing
things, got the call sign wrong, something.

“I heard no big guns work him, but I heard at least one other
run-of-the-mill U.S. station work him for the few minutes I paused
to monitor him.  When I checked again about 15 minutes later he was
gone but I then heard a Czech station and a Lithuanian but didn’t
get them. Both also near their twilight sunrise line.  My antenna
and low noise floor allow me to hear these stations that few if any
others were calling. The UA7K clearly also had a very low noise
floor but is apparently one of those super contest stations, Russian
Contest Club. My 5 watts not enough to work any others of the good
DX stuff–too bad!  I was tempted several times to turn on the amp
but resisted! This is currently my best of all time QSO.

“Was this QSO assisted by the auroral oval shifting away from the
transatlantic path?”

I didn’t have an answer for Jim but wanted to pass this on to
readers.

Interesting article about solar activity from Canada’s CBC:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/solar-activity-1.5049337

Thanks, David Moore, for sending this link concerning massive solar
storms:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190311152744.htm

The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found at,
https://youtu.be/TSDfL9cwzEU .

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for March 7 through 13, 2019 were 14, 11, 11, 11,
11, 11, and 0, with a mean of 9.9. 10.7 cm flux was 70.9, 71.8,
70.7, 71.1, 70.4, 70.7, and 70.8, with a mean of 70.9. Estimated
planetary A indices were 8, 5, 5, 4, 3, 7, and 4, with a mean of
5.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 3, 4, 3, 3, 5, and 4, with a
mean of 3.9.
NNNN
/EX

Attachments area

Preview YouTube video A Surprisingly Active Sun: Solar Storm Forecast 03-14-2019

ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA, 08 Mar 2019


Welcome to “Propagation Forecast” update from Big Island ARRL News.

Views expressed in this Amateur/Ham Radio news summary are those of the reporters and correspondents.

Content provided by HQ ARRL, 225 Main St., Newington, CT, 0611, W1AW, and Tad Cook (K7RA).

Accessed on 09 March 2019, 0645 UTC, Post 891.

Source:

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=rm#label/ARRL+website/FMfcgxwBVztWJDQQTrKCPfjMRlvDqrpj

Please click link or scroll down to read the current propagation forecast from K7RA.

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010
ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP10
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10  ARLP010
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  March 8, 2019
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP010
ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

After no sunspots over the entire month of February, sunspot group
2734 appeared on March 5. So far the new sunspot numbers are 14, 17,
and 14 on March 5-7. I believe this was the longest consecutive
period (33 days) with no sunspots on this declining side of Cycle
24. The polarity of the new sunspot group identifies it as being
from Cycle 24, not the upcoming Cycle 25.

Frank Donovan, W3LPL sent a link from the Royal Observatory in
Belgium showing brief sunspot appearances on February 13 and 21:

http://www.sidc.be/products/ri/

But numbers from NOAA do not show these:

ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt

ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/quar_DSD.txt

It is interesting to note that we are currently seeing the lowest
sunspot activity since August 2008 during the last solar cycle
minimum, between Cycles 23 and 24.

Frank also sent this link, concerning spotless days:

http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless

And a newsletter:

http://www.stce.be/newsletter/pdf/2019/STCEnews20190307.pdf

Average daily sunspot numbers for the week increased from 0 to 4.4,
compared to the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux was
unchanged at 70.6

Average daily planetary A index rose from 4.9 to 12.6, and average
mid-latitude A index increased from 4 to 9.7. These geomagnetic
indicators were higher due to effects of a solar wind stream on
February 28 and March 1.

Predicted solar flux is 71 on March 8-12, and 70 on March 13 through
April 21.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10 and 8 on March 8-10, 5 on
March 11-13, 10 on March 14-15, 5 on March 16-25, then 12, 30, 28,
14, 8 and 10 on March 26-31, then 8, 5, 10, 15, 12, 12 and 8 on
April 1-7, then 5 on April 8-15, 10 on April 16, and 5 on April
17-21.

In reference to the predicted planetary A index, here is the
geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 8 until April 6,
2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

“Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on March 14-15, 23-24
Quiet to unsettled on March 9, 17-18, 22, 25
Quiet to active on March 8, 10-13, 19-21, 31, April 1-2
Unsettled to active on March 16, 26, 29-30
Active to disturbed on March 27-28

“Solar wind will intensify on March (8-9,) 13-14, (15,) 21-22,
25-28, April 1, (2, 5)

“Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.”

Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW sent this video and report:

https://youtu.be/eq_r4st7Sy8

“Dear Tad,

“We have been enjoying an unusual increase in activity over the past
week. First, the Sun launched a solar storm that grazed Earth. Nice
to see our solar minimum Sun can still launch storms every now and
again! This solar storm enhanced a relatively weak period of fast
solar wind and caused aurora to drop down to mid-latitudes, lasting
for nearly two days. We haven’t seen a storm that engaging since
2018!

“As if that wasn’t enough fun, two new hot spots have emerged in
Earth view alongside a third bright region that was already visible.
Three active regions on the Earth-facing Sun? We haven’t seen that
since 2017!

“Additionally, the biggest and brightest of these hotspots has now
grown into a ‘rogue’ sunspot. This means it clearly shows an
influence from the coming Solar Cycle 25! Although we cannot
officially designate this region, numbered 2734, as a sunspot from
the new cycle, its magnetic signature is very peculiar. Its magnetic
poles sit one on top of the other instead of side by side. This is
unusual and point to the region being a bit confused as to which
cycle it belongs. I will be sure to report on it in more detail
during my Solar Storm forecast that I’ll finish late this week.

“As for the current forecast, expect solar flux to remain in the low
to mid 70s due to the new active regions. This will give radio
propagation a nice boost on Earth’s day side. Also, as the solar
storm continues to wane, GPS reception should continue to improve on
Earth’s night side and at high latitudes. However, satellite
operators and users should be aware of an increase in anomalies over
the next few days due to the enhanced near-Earth radiation
environment right now. This is especially true for those satellites
in geosynchronous orbits (GEO) like Direct TV and SIRIUS-XM Radio.
So, if your satellite radio glitches while you’re listening to your
favorite song, you’ll know why.

“Cheers, Tamitha.”

In last week’s Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP009 –
https://bit.ly/2EM3b8K – I expressed my confusion over the numbers
in FT8 reports. Thanks to N6KW, N5UWY and others for clearing this
up.  Here is N6KW’s missive:

“The FT8 QSO, left to right, is Zulu time, signal/noise ratio in dB,
time deviation in seconds, audio frequency in the passband.

“So JA4FKX’s signal was 13 dB below the noise at the time of copy.”

N5UWY wrote:

“That’s a cut/paste from WSJT-X (K1JT’s software package for all the
modes he and his colleagues have developed). Fields are ‘UTC, signal
strength in dB relative to the noise level in a 2500-Hz bandwidth,
delta in seconds between received station’s clock and UTC, the
number of Hertz above the dial frequency, then the message from the
other station’ Japan (or ‘JA’) is tacked on after the message by the
software to indicate the DXCC entity by name or prefix.

“‘343’ here means that JA4FKX was transmitting on 10136.343 kHz.
Further, his clock was 0.3 s off UTC (according to the receiving
station’s clock which could be off itself!) and the JA’s signal was
13 dB DOWN from the noise level that the software was seeing at the
receiver.

“I am totally an expert now on FT8. I started using it on January 28
and by February 27 or so, I had WAS on 30 m and FT8! Made about 350
QSOs. Got some DX, too. 30 meters is an interesting band and I’m
glad I stuck it out there as I’d never really operated on the band
before. I’m kidding – I am in no way an expert. I didn’t even stay
at a Holiday Inn.

“FT8 is kind of addicting but it’s fun. Even got an ATNO on 30 –
Reunion Island my 2nd best DX ever. I think I’m running about 50 W
to a trap dipole at about 25-30.”

On March 7 NN4X wrote:

“FT8 is a fantastic tool for monitoring prop. It allowed me to
document a fascinating but short 30 minute opening to Africa from
Florida, resulting in RF being expended from my side, but no QSOs.
My antenna: JK Antennas JK-WARC 121730 (3 elements on 17M) at 113
feet.

“17M 2019-Mar-07
EA9AK 1502Z
5X2S  1516Z
Z81D  1530Z”

On March 6, Steve wrote:

“Due to dreadful conditions, I seriously did not want to suffer
through the ARRL DX contest last week, but did want to play on the
radio. I’ve only been on 12M since December 2018, so have been
making a point to check it frequently.

“Just to show that there is propagation, here’s a selection of what
I’ve worked from Florida recently:

“VK3BDX February 28
LU, PY, YV, T31EU, YN, FY, EA8/DL9XJ, CE, CX, EA7DT, HK, HD8M (HC8)
March 2, 3
CE0YHO March 3,
T31EU March 2, 3
EA8AXT, EA8AKN, EA9ACD March 5

“So, the moral of the story is, ‘Never Give Up Hope.'”

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for February 28 through March 6, 2019 were 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 14, and 17, with a mean of 4.4. 10.7 cm flux was 70.1, 69.9,
69.4, 69.5, 70.9, 72, and 72.5, with a mean of 70.6. Estimated
planetary A indices were 26, 24, 12, 6, 7, 5, and 8, with a mean of
12.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 17, 18, 9, 6, 7, 4, and
7, with a mean of 9.7.
NNNN
/EX

Attachments area
Preview YouTube video Space Weather News | A Hotspot Turns Sunspot & Orbit Outlook 03.06.2019

ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA, 01 Mar 2019


Welcome to an Amateur/Ham Radio updated from Big Island ARRL News.

Views expressed in this amateur/ham radio news summary are those of the reporters and correspondents.

Content provided by Tad Cook (K7RA), HQ ARRL (Newington, CT, 06111), and W1AW.

Accessed on 01 March 2019, 1455 UTC, Post 884.

Source:

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=rm#label/ARRL+website/FMfcgxwBVqWtsZKMKrCXmvHJqqxwpgzh

Please click link or scroll down to read the complete propagation forecast from K7RA.

ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

ARRL website
x

ARRL Web site

4:30 AM (19 minutes ago)

 to me
“SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP009
ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP09
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9  ARLP009
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  March 1, 2019
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP009
ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

At 2256 UTC on February 28 the Australian Space Forecast Centre
issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning. “The Earth is currently
under the influence of strongly elevated solar wind speed associated
with a coronal hole. A period of significant southward Bz component
could produce an isolated Minor Storm period.”

The Bz component refers to the interplanetary magnetic field. See:

https://bit.ly/1S6H68D

No sunspots emerged during the entire month of February. Currently
on February 28 the Earth is bathed in solar wind from a wide hole in
the Sun’s atmosphere.

The average daily solar flux and geomagnetic indices were
practically unchanged over last week (February 21-27) compared to
the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux was 70.7 (it was
70.6 in the prior week), average daily planetary A index was
unchanged at 4.9, and average daily mid-latitude A index was 4,
virtually unchanged from 3.9 the previous week.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70 on March 1-8, and
71 on March 9 through April 14.

Predicted planetary A index is 20, 14, 10, 8, 8, 5 and 5 on March
1-7, 10, 8, 5 and 5 on March 8-11, 12 and 10 on March 12-13, 5 on
March 14-19, 10 on March 20, 5 on March 21-25, then 18, 24, 16, 12
and 8 on March 26-30, then 5, 8, 5, 8, 10 and 8 on March 31 through
April 5, 5 on April 6-7, then 12 and 10 on April 8-9, and 5 on April
10-14.

Here is the geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 1-27,
2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

“Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on March 15, 23-25
Quiet to unsettled on March 4-7, 9-10, 16, 18, 22
Quiet to active on March 3, 8, 11-14, 17, 19-20
Unsettled to active on March 1-2, 7, 21, 26
Active to disturbed on March 27

“Solar wind will intensify on March (1-3, 6-9,) 13-14, (15,) 21-22,
25-26

“Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.”

The latest Space Weather forecast, from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW is
located at:

https://youtu.be/1EKJ3d3c3bA

Received this from Jon Jones, N0JK:

“In Hawaii (Kapolei, O’ahu) this week visiting relatives. No 6 meter
propagation this week, though the KH6HI/b 50.064 MHz is 599. I had
lunch February 20 with Bert, KH6HI and Tom, NH6Y who are among the
most active 50 MHz ops in the 50th state. They are looking forward
to the Summer sporadic-E season.  Tom notes that North America seems
to have a better and more frequent path to Japan than from Hawaii on
50 MHz Es. Aloha, N0JK”

Here is a February 23 email from Ken Brown, N4SO of Grand Bay,
Alabama:

“In addition to the low bands, 10.136 MHz remains very good on the
FT8 mode.

“This is one example from 10:10 AM JA4FKX working 0 land stations.
(The path to Japan and Indonesia opens way before daylight). During
the night, conditions are similar to 7 MHz.

“161045 -13 0.3 343 – CQ NA JA4FKX PM64  Japan”

(Sorry, but I do not know the significance of those numbers, not
being an FT8 user yet. K7RA)

From KD6JUI, who operates almost exclusively from his freshwater
kayak in Northern California:

“Had an exceptional day last Tuesday the 19th, 10 watts from the
kayak, got into Brazil on SSB (20m).  Also heard Spain coming in
loud and clear. QRN was higher than usual.

“I am still able to get enough QSOs on 17, 20 and 30m from the kayak
to keep me happy. Being on the water helps I’m sure. Lately, there’s
usually QSB on 17m QSOs.

“Bil, KD6JUI”

This weekend is the ARRL International SSB DX Contest. See
http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx for details.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for February 21 through 27, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.8, 71.2, 70.7, 70.5,
70.4, 70.6, and 70.7, with a mean of 70.6. Estimated planetary A
indices were 11, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, and 10, with a mean of 4.9.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 9, 3, 2, 1, 2, 2, and 9, with
a mean of 3.9.
NNNN
/EX

Attachments area
Preview YouTube video Launching Into the Wind: Solar Storm Forecast 02-27-2019

ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA, 15 Feb 2019


Welcome to today’s Amateur/Ham Radio News update from “Big Island ARRL News.”

Views in this post are those of the reporters and correspondents.  This post discusses the current propagation forecast for radio amateurs worldwide.

Content provided by Tad Cook (K7RA), W1AW, and HQ ARRL, Newington, CT, 06111.

Accessed on 16 February 2019, 0405 UTC, Post 871.

Source:

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#label/ARRL+website/FMfcgxwBVgqHjpvLZZGVtXDLqgpnQGSG

Please click link or scroll down to read your selections.

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007
ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP07
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7  ARLP007
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  February 15, 2019
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP007
ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

Another week passed with no sunspots, and as of February 14 it has
been over two weeks since any sunspots were observed, the last on
January 30. February 7 through 13 saw average daily solar flux
decline from 71.1 to 70.4, compared to the previous seven days.
Geomagnetic indices were lower, with average daily planetary A index
declining from 11.6 to 8.1, and average mid-latitude A index going
from 8 to 6.1. Lower geomagnetic activity is generally good for HF
propagation.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70 on February 15-21,
72 on February 22-25, 71 on February 26 through March 9, 70 and 71
on March 10-11, 72 on March 12-24, and 71 on March 25-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on February 14-15, 5 on
February 16-18, then 12, 20, 12 and 8 on February 19-22, 5 on
February 23-26, then 12, 15, 15 and 10 on February 27 through March
2, 5 on March 3-4, then 8, 5, 8, 10, 8 and 5 on March 5-10, 8 on
March 11-12, 5 on March 13-17, then 12, 20, 12 and 8 on March 18-21,
5 on March 22-25, 12 on March 26, 15 on March 27-28, 10 and 5 on
March 29-30.

The prediction of solar flux always at 70 or above over the next 45
days is a positive sign for HF propagation, and also the Spring
Equinox returns on March 20, indicating gradually improving HF
propagation.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 15 until March
13, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

“Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on February 16-17, 24-26
Quiet to unsettled on February 18, 27, March 3-4, 6-7, 10-11
Quiet to active on February 15, 23, March 5, 8-9, 13
Unsettled to active on February 19, 22, March 1-2, 12
Active to disturbed on February 20 (- 21), 28

“Solar wind will intensify on February (19,) 20-21, (22, 28) March
(1-3, 6-9, 13). Parenthesis means lower probability of activity
enhancement.”

Jon Jones, N0JK writes to us from Lawrence, Kansas, where he
operates on 6 meters with a very modest antenna and low power.

“A set of rare off season 6 meter sporadic-E openings appeared on
the evening of February 7, and again the morning of February 8.

“February 7 sporadic-E appeared suddenly on 6 meters starting around
2300z from W2, W3 to W4, and W4 to W0.

“The next morning February 8, there was strong sporadic-E on 50 MHz
across the eastern United States and Canada. N0LL (EM09) worked
short Es (high MUF) to W4HLR (EM56) at 1450z. The opening finished
around 1845z with K9MU (EN44) working VE1JF (FN74).

“The only months with less sporadic-E than February in North America
are: March, September and October.”

The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/H2jDNtUvZkI

Reader Ken Miller, K6CTW has an interesting and informative article
in the current February 2019 issue of Electric Radio magazine titled
“DX’ing During Periods of Low Sunspot Activity.” Ken and the
publisher of Electric Radio have generously offered to share this
article with our readers. For a PDF copy of the article, email a
request to k7ra@arrl.net, and title the message “K6CTW article.”

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for February 7 through 13, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.2, 71.8, 70.3, 70,
69.9, 70.2, and 70.4, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated planetary A
indices were 4, 9, 10, 6, 9, 6, and 13, with a mean of 8.1.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 7, 6, 4, 7, 5, and 11, with
a mean of 6.1.
NNNN
/EX

Attachments area
Preview YouTube video New Light & A Guest Star: Solar Storm Forecast 02-13-2019

ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA


Welcome to the Friday evening update from “Big Island ARRL News”.   Views expressed in this Amateur/Ham Radio news summary are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Content provided by HQ ARRL, Newington, CT, 06111 and by Tad Cook (K7RA).

Source:

Email message from W1AW and HQ ARRL.

Here’s the latest propagation bulletin from W1AW and HQ ARRL.

“ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

ARRL website
x

ARRL Web site

1:44 PM (4 hours ago)

 to me
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP004
ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP04
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 4  ARLP004
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  January 25, 2019
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP004
ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot group 2733 appeared on Tuesday with a sunspot number of 18,
and on Wednesday it increased in size with a sunspot number of 19,
which was also the sunspot number on Thursday, January 24.

See images of this sunspot group at,
http://www.solarham.net/regions/2733.htm

2733 is a remnant of old Solar Cycle 24. Average daily sunspot
numbers increased to 5.3, from 0 the previous week. Average daily
solar flux increased slightly from 69.4 to 69.8.

Average daily planetary A index increased from 4.9 to 5.9, while
mid-latitude A index was unchanged at 4.

Predicted solar flux is 72 on January 25-29, 70 on January 30
through February 4, 69 on February 5-16, 71 on February 17-28, 70 on
March 1-3, and 69 on March 4-10.

Planetary A index is predicted at 18, 10 and 3 on January 25-27, 5
on January 28-30, 8 on January 31, then 15, 12 and 8 on February
1-3, 5 on February 4-18, then 18, 25, 18 and 10 on February 19-22, 5
on February 23-26, then 10 and 15 on February 27-28, 12 and 8 on
March 1-2, and 5 on March 3-10.

Tomas Bayer of the Institute of Geophysics of ASCR, Department of
Geomagnetism, Budkov Observatory sends this geomagnetic activity
forecast for January 25-31, 2019:

“Quiet: Jan 27-30
Unsettled: Jan 25-26, 31
Active: Jan 31
Minor storm: 0
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

“Geomagnetic activity summary:

“After the last active event (January 23, local K-index has reached
4) we expect geomagnetic activity to decrease to quiet to unsettled
level. We expect the most unsettled episode about January 25 and 26,
and, additionally, at the end of forecast period, January 31.
Between these events, January 27-30, we expect quiet conditions.”

Next week we will return to geomagnetic forecasts from Frantisek
Janda, OK1HH. He is on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/OK1HH .

Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest report, although by now several days old:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlLjlHjffzYz

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for January 17 through 23, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
18, and 19, with a mean of 5.3. 10.7 cm flux was 68.6, 68.8, 69.7,
69.2, 69.9, 70.7, and 71.5, with a mean of 69.8. Estimated planetary
A indices were 7, 6, 4, 4, 4, 3, and 13, with a mean of 5.9.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 5, 2, 2, 2, 2, and 10, with
a mean of 4.
NNNN
/EX

Attachments area
Preview YouTube video Aurora on the Way with a Wolf Moon Eclipse: Solar Storm Shortie: 01-21-2019