ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

Here’s the latest propagation forecast from Tad Cook (K7RA).

Views expressed in this article are those of the reporters and correspondents.

Content supplied by Tad Cook (K7RA) and his volunteer staff of obsevers.

Accessed on 09 May 2020, 1515 UTC, Post 1433.

Source (email message from HQ ARRL and W1AW):

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/h/1sbz25hbqn91n/?&th=171f6cceb08bed16&v=c&s=l&l=ARRL+website

Please click link or scroll down to read your selections.

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP19
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19  ARLP019
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  May 8, 2020
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

We haven’t seen a sunspot since Thursday, April 30 when the daily
sunspot number was 35. This is a relatively high sunspot number
based on recent activity, although not historically. In fact, the
daily sunspot number has not been as high since March 21, 2019 when
it was 49, and prior to that we need to look back further to the
previous year, when the daily sunspot number was 41 on June 22,
2018, to find a sunspot number that was as high.

This, and the fact that last week’s sunspots showed the new cycle 25
polarity gives me reason for optimism. I expect solar activity to
increase and along with it, the outlook for better HF propagation.
Another reason for my optimism is that new sunspot cycles increase
at a faster rate than they decline after a activity peak has passed.

That peak of sunspot cycle 25 is expected around July, 2025, +/- 8
months, according to the latest forecast from the NOAA/NASA
International Solar Cycle Prediction Panel.

Average daily sunspot number for last week was 5, down from 8.7 the
previous seven days. The average daily solar flux rose from 69.2 to
69.5.

Average daily planetary A index declined from 5.6 to 5.1, and
average middle latitude A index slipped from 5.1 to 5.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70, every day, May 8
til June 21. In fact, that outlook for a continuous 45-day stretch
of solar flux at 70 has been the same since the May 3 prediction.

The predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 8 to 11, 8 on May 12, 5
on May 13 to 17, then 10 and 8 on May 18 and 19, 5 on May 20 to 23,
8 on May 24 to 27, 5 on May 28 to 30, then 8, 10 and 8 on May 31
through June 2, 5 on June 3 to 13, 10 and 8 on June 14 and 15, and 5
on June 16 to 21.

There you have it, a nice steady solar flux above the sixties for
the next month and a half, and stable geomagnetic conditions too.

On Thursday, May 7, Spaceweather.com reported an incoming solar wind
expected to graze our magnetic field on May 10, “causing geomagnetic
unrest at high latitudes.”  Note that our planetary A index forecast
above does not show an increase until May 12.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 8 til June 2, 2020
from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

“Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: May 13, 26, June 2
quiet to unsettled on: May 8, 16, 25, 27 to 31
quiet to active on: (May 9, 11 and 12, 14 and 15, 20 to 22, 24, June
1)
unsettled to active on: (May 10, 17 to 19, 23)
active to disturbed:  nothing expected

Solar wind will intensify on: May (11 and 12,) (18 to 21, 23,) 24

Remarks:
– Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
– The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no
indications.”

Jon Jones, N0JK reported on May 6:

“I was active on 50 MHz during the Eta Aquarid meteor shower on May
5.

I worked W4IMD EM84 on 6 meters via meteor scatter using the digital
MSK144 mode at 1205 UTC. As W4IMD sent 73, I copied a CQ from Larry
Lambert, N0LL who was portable in rare grid DN90. I called Larry, he
copied me but we did not complete a contact.

I decoded several other stations including N4QWZ, AI5I, K0TPP, KE5Q,
and WA4CQG on meteor scatter.”

Check https://bit.ly/3fwUP6P for a dramatic video from Space.com
showing images of all daily earth-facing sunspot activity over seven
years, including approximately 93 solar rotations, compressed into
200 seconds.

Frank Donovan, W3LPL sent this fascinating information on Earth’s
three north poles.

“BBC’s article this week “Scientists explain magnetic pole’s
wanderings” has attracted the interest of radio amateurs interested
in ionospheric propagation.

www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52550973

Unless you’ve studied geomagnetic physics you probably never
learned, or even heard, that the Earth has three north poles.  The
BBC article describes the poles very well, but does not address the
relationship between the poles and ionospheric propagation.

The geographic north pole is where the Earth’s rotation axis
intersects the Earth’s surface in the northern hemisphere.  It
affects ionospheric propagation because the orientation of Earth’s
tilted axis to the Sun varies with the seasons and determines our
daylight/darkness cycles throughout the year.

While the magnetic north pole, the focus of the BBC article, is
important to navigation systems, it has no significance to
ionospheric propagation. Most of us learned about the magnetic north
pole when we learned how to use a compass, it is located in the
northern hemisphere where the Earth’s magnetic field lines are
measured to be exactly perpendicular to the Earth’s surface.  Its
position has been drifting about 50 to 60 km per year for about the
last forty years.

The geomagnetic north pole, only briefly described in the BBC
article, is very important to ionospheric propagation and many other
aspects of the Earth’s space environment.  It is the intersection of
the Earth’s surface in the northern hemisphere and the axis of a bar
magnet hypothetically placed at the center the Earth.  It is very
significant for ionospheric propagation because it determines the
position of the geomagnetic field in the Earth’s space environment
including, very importantly, its ionosphere.  The geomagnetic field
very profoundly affects ionospheric propagation. The geomagnetic
north pole drifts only about one km.  per year, a tiny fraction of
the movement of the magnetic north pole described in the BBC
article.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/13DC2/production/_112164318_new-nc.png

As an aside, while the magnetic north pole is drifting fairly
rapidly, the magnetic south pole is drifting very little at all.”

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see
http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for April 30 through May 6, 2020 were 35, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 5.  10.7 cm flux was 69.8, 70.2, 69.2,
68.7, 69.3, 69.3, and 69.8, with a mean of 69.5.  Estimated
planetary A indices were 2, 6, 5, 5, 6, 6, and 6, with a mean of
5.1.  Middle latitude A index was 1, 5, 3, 5, 8, 7, and 6, with a
mean of 5.
NNNN
/EX


For the latest Amateur/Ham Radio news and information, please check this blog daily.  News feeds are updated daily and weekly. Thanks for joining us today.

Aloha es 73 de Russell Roberts (KH6JRM)

Public Information Coordinator

Hawaii County, ARRL Pacific Section

https://atomic-temporary-116934757.wpcomstaging.com

https://www.simplehamradioantennas.com

https://paper.li/f-1576465810 (breaking Amateur/Ham Radio news)

ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

Welcome to an “Amateur/Ham Radio News” update from Big Island ARRL News.  Views expressed in this news summary are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Content supplied by HQ ARRL, 225 Main Street, Newington, CT, 0611, W1AW, and Tad Cook (K7RA).

Accessed on 11 May 2019, 0124 UTC, Post 966.

Source (via email):

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=rm#inbox/FMfcgxwCgfsLmBbXsSZbNMjWtfvLtcJL

Please click link or scroll down to read your selections.

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP19
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19 ARLP019
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA May 10, 2019
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

We saw 0 sunspots from April 21 through May 2, but on May 3 sunspots
returned. Average daily sunspot number rose from 0 last week to 16.1
this week, and average daily solar flux increased as well, from 67.5
to 73.5.

Both the average middle latitude and planetary A index this week
were 6.6, and last week those numbers were 4.7 and 5.9 respectively.

Predicted solar flux is 75 on May 10-11, 73 on May 12-15, 74 and 76
on May 16-17, 72 on May 18-20, 68 on May 21-22, 67 on May 23-26,
then 69, 68, 69, 70 and 72 on May 27-31, 75 on June 1, 76 on June
2-13, 72 on June 14-16, 68 on June 17-18, 67 on June 19-22 and 69 on
June 23.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 10, 14 and 12 on May 11-12,
5 on May 13-19, 8 on May 20, 5 on May 21-27, then 10, 12, 8 and 10
on May 28-31, then 5, 12 and 14 on June 1-3, 8 on June 4-6, 5 on
June 7-15, 8 on June 16, and 5 on June 17-23.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 10 to June 5, 2019
from F.K. Janda OK1HH.

“Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on May 10, 18-19, 22-23, 26-27
Quiet to unsettled on May 13-17, 21, 24-25, June 1-5
Quiet to active on May 11-12, 30
Unsettled to active on May 20, 28-29, 31
Active to disturbed-none

“Solar wind will intensify on May (10,) 11-12, 14, (20,) 21-23,
29-31, June 1.

“Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.”

Jeff, N8II in West Virginia wrote on May 4:

“We are in a bit of a funk waiting for sporadic-E to improve.

“Starting around 1900Z last Saturday and Sunday April 27-28, 20
meters began closing to north Florida in the FL QSO Party and was
completely closed by 2200Z. Then some sporadic-E appeared and 20 was
open to most of FL from around 2345Z-0145Z. On 40, there was no skip
zone, so the callers from everywhere drowned out the FL mobiles they
were calling.

“Due to the higher MUF, the mobiles were also weaker than normal on
40 Saturday evening, but fixed stations were still pretty loud.

Today, May 4, is the 7th call area QSO Party. 20 did not open well
until about 1415Z and signals were good until around 1700Z after
which they were much weaker and absolutely nothing was heard on 15,
worst ever 7th call area QSO Party conditions that I can remember.

“Most evenings around 2100-2300Z, 20 meters is wide open to southern
EU (many S9+ signals) despite the low SFI, but all DX signals are
pretty weak by 1300Z almost every morning.”

The latest videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, the Space Weather Woman,
WX6SWW:

https://bit.ly/2LxWPkc

https://bit.ly/304HRp7

Steve Justus, W4SAJ lives in Central Florida and was on 10 meters
last Saturday (May 4) running FT8 mode at 100 watts and beaming
toward Australia with a 4 element mono-band beam. He was called by a
station in Beijing, and is curious about the possible propagation
mode, since Steve was not beaming in that direction. But FT8 is so
efficient with decoding weak signals that this contact does not
surprise me, although the signal strength may have surprised Steve.

Mike Schaeffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania wrote Thursday, May
9:

“This evening, while monitoring CB channel 29 (27.285 MHz) AM mode
between 0020-0203 UTC, May 10, while the MUF reached 74 MHz over
Maidenhead grid square EM53 (Starkville, MS), with the solar flux
being 76, the following state stations were heard: (AL, FL, GA, IL,
IN, KY, MN, NC, OH, TN, WV). 0020 UTC is 14 minutes after local
sunset, 8:06 pm EDT.

“According to NOAA solar wind prediction models, the Earth is going
to get slammed with a solar storm on May 11 at 1000 UTC. Expect
noisy propagation conditions on the high frequency bands.”

This just in, via WW1ME, VE7DXW and AF7TI:

Go to:

https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/rt-iono/realtime/PA836_foF2.png

This shows you recent foF2 readings from Point Arguello in Southern
California.

foF2 is the highest frequency reflected vertically from the
ionosphere using an ionosonde.

Here is a list of ionosondes:

You can check data from other locations by plugging the station code
(such as BC840 for Boulder, Colorado) into the Point Arguello URL
(replacing PA836), like this:

https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/rt-iono/realtime/BC840_foF2.png

I only know definitions of a few of the parameters listed, such as
foF2 and TEC (Total Electron Content).

I hope to have more info on these tools next week.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for May 2 through 8, 2019 were 0, 11, 12, 14, 25,
27, and 24, with a mean of 16.1. 10.7 cm flux was 69.2, 69.8, 72.3,
73.5, 76, 78.7, and 75.3, with a mean of 73.5. Estimated planetary A
indices were 12, 7, 10, 4, 5, 5, and 3, with a mean of 6.6. Middle
latitude A index was 13, 8, 9, 4, 5, 5, and 2, with a mean of 6.6.
NNNN
/EX


Hawaii Island Amateur/Ham Radio News:

Doug Wilson (KH7DQ) is continuing his free Technician License Classes on Hawaii Island.  Here are the last two classes of the year:  23 May 2019 in Waimea (location TBA) and 17 October 2019 at the Keaau Community Center. For details, contact Doug at douscelle@aol.com.

Hawaii Island radio amateurs are encouraged to sign up for the new ARRL EMCOMM Course (EC-001).  Pacific Section Emergency Coordinator (SEC), Clem Jung (KH7H0) will handle student registration for the course.  The course is being offered free of charge  by the ARRL to all Amateur Radio operators.  Contact Clem at kh7ho@arrl.net.

For the latest Amateur/Ham Radio news and information, please check the blog sidebars and links.  These news feeds are updated daily and weekly.  Thanks for joining us today.

Aloha es 73 de Russell Roberts (KH6JRM)

Public Information Coordinator

Hawaii County, ARRL Pacific Section

https://atomic-temporary-116934757.wpcomstaging.com