ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA


Welcome to the ARRL Propagation Forecast from k7RA.

Views expressed in the propagation summary are those of Tad Cook (K7RA) and his staff of volunteer observers.

Content supplied by HQ ARRL, 225 Main Street, Newington, CT, 06111.

Accessed on 09 November 2019, 1605 UTC, Post 1196.

Source (email from HQ ARRL).

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=rm&ogbl#inbox/FMfcgxwDsFgnQRwmGcJkVbbffzQkBcJH

Please click link or scroll down to read your selections.

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP45
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45  ARLP045
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 8, 2019
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

Two new sunspot groups appeared this week, on two consecutive days,
each lasting for only a day, with a daily sunspot number of 11 and
13 on Friday and Saturday of last week, just in time for ARRL CW
Sweepstakes. Both sunspot groups had a magnetic polarity signature
indicating Solar Cycle 25, and appeared after 4 weeks of no
sunspots.

Spaceweather.com reported both appearances as region AR2750, yet
NOAA reported a new sunspot group on each day, shown as a 1 in the
New Regions column:

ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt

Perhaps that is true, and the new appearances on each day were both
counted as part of AR2750.

Solar flux was higher over the past reporting week (Thursday through
Wednesday, October 31 through November 6) with average daily solar
flux rising from 68.5 to 70.4.

Average solar flux as reported in this bulletin hasn’t been as high
since 2019 Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP020, back in May, when
it was 75.7:

http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP020/2019

Note there were sunspots during that week also.

Geomagnetic indicators were low this week, with average daily
planetary A index declining from 16.4 to 4.1, and average
mid-latitude A index softening from 13 to 2.7.

Predicted solar flux is 70 on November 8, 68 on November 9-15, 67 on
November 16-19, 68 and 70 on November 20-21, 71 on November 22-30,
70 on December 1-6, 69 on December 7-19, and 70 on December 20-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 8-9, then 10, 12 and 8
on November 10-12, 5 on November 13-19, then 15, 25, 18, 12 and 10
on November 20-24, 8 on November 25-26, 5 on November 27 through
December 16, then 15, 20, and 18, on December 17-19, 12 on December
20-21 and 5 on December 22.

At ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ NOAA reported a solar
flux forecast of 96 for December 16-18 in their predictions on their
November 1-5 forecasts, but when I asked about this, they told me
that the US Air Force had transposed digits from 69 to 96. By the
November 6 forecast, this was all corrected. Drat! I was hoping for
those higher numbers. My contact at NOAA told me he wished the flux
would be 96, or even better, 196!

Even during days with no sunspots, there was notable HF propagation
recently, with the Pitcairn Island expedition making HF contacts
across the Americas, even on 10 meters.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent us his geomagnetic activity forecast for the
period November 8 to December 3, 2019.

“Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: November 13, 18-19, 29-30, December 1
Quiet to unsettled on: November  8-9, 11, 15, 27-28
Quiet to active on: November 10, 12, 14, 16-17, 25-26, December 2-3
Unsettled to active on: November 20, 24
Active to disturbed: November 21-23

“Solar wind will intensify on: November (8-9,) 13, 21-26, (27-29).

“Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.”

Stevie, MI0GTA, from Ireland commented on November 4 about working
DX, even with low solar activity:

“I thought you might like to know I worked 15 new DXCC countries on
15m during the CQWW CW DX Contest, Chile, India, South Africa,
Afghanistan were some of the best I worked.

“I use a M0PLK delta loop at 11 meters above ground and 350w from my
old Yaesu FL2100z amp, rig is a Pro-III.

“Even today I worked WQ7X in Phoenix, Arizona.”

Check out Stevie’s QRZ.com page for details on his collection of ham
radio related maps.

David Moore sent this article about an overlooked piece of the solar
dynamo puzzle – a particular form of magnetic instability:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/10/191028104142.htm

The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/Rm520CkqoLM

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for October 31 through November 6, 2019 were 0, 11,
13, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.4. 10.7 cm flux was 71.2, 70.7,
70.7, 69.4, 70.8, 70.4, and 69.3, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated
planetary A indices were 7, 4, 2, 2, 4, 5, and 5, with a mean of
4.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 2, 1, 1, 4, 2, and 4, with a
mean of 2.7.
NNNN
/EX


Hawaii Island Amateur/Ham Radio News:

The next meeting of the Big Island Amateur Radio Club is today (Saturday), 09 November 2019, 1400 HST, at the Keaau Community Center in Keaau, Hawaii Island.

The ARRL Pacific Division Member Meeting will be held on Tuesday, 12 November 2019, 1730 HST, at the KMC cafeteria. A buffet dinner will be provided.  The guest speaker will be  ARRL Pacific Division Director Jim Tiemstra (K6JAT), who will discuss several pressing issues affecting radio amateurs.  RSVP by today (Saturday), 09 November 2019, 1500 HST.  RSVP to Bob (AH6J) at 808-345-6390.

For the latest Amateur/Ham Radio news, events, and information, please visit this blog daily.  Thanks for joining us today.

Aloha es 73 de Russell Roberts (KH6JRM)

Public Information Coordinator

Hawaii County, ARRL Pacific Section

https://atomic-temporary-116934757.wpcomstaging.com

Retired News director of Pacific Radio Group Radio Stations on Hawaii-the Big Island. I have more than 40 years of broadcast experience, including positons at KTUH-FM (UH-Manoa), KPOI-FM (Honolulu). KHLO-AM (Hilo), KKBG-FM (KBIG-FM)(Hilo/Kona), KAPA-FM (Hilo-Kona). Native-FM (Hilo-Kona), and ESPN Hawaii (Hilo-Kona). Former University of Hawaii-Hilo librarian. Retired Air Force Officer. Amateur (Ham) Radio operator since 1977 (currently holds the Amateur Extra Class License from the FCC-KH6JRM).... Can read, write, and speak Russian. Retired on 30 September 2011, but still maintains a Hawaii Island News Blog.

Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Amateur/Ham Radio, ARRL, Big Island ARRL News, Big Island of Hawaii ARRL info, Club Activities, Hawaii Island Amateur Radio Clubs
Site Administrator and PIO
Russ Roberts

Russ Roberts

Retired News director of Pacific Radio Group Radio Stations on Hawaii-the Big Island. I have more than 40 years of broadcast experience, including positons at KTUH-FM (UH-Manoa), KPOI-FM (Honolulu). KHLO-AM (Hilo), KKBG-FM (KBIG-FM)(Hilo/Kona), KAPA-FM (Hilo-Kona). Native-FM (Hilo-Kona), and ESPN Hawaii (Hilo-Kona). Former University of Hawaii-Hilo librarian. Retired Air Force Officer. Amateur (Ham) Radio operator since 1977 (currently holds the Amateur Extra Class License from the FCC-KH6JRM).... Can read, write, and speak Russian. Retired on 30 September 2011, but still maintains a Hawaii Island News Blog.

View Full Profile →

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 157 other followers

  • Amateur Radio Newsline Report 2291 for Friday September 24th, 2021 September 24, 2021
    - HOSPITALIZED CHILDREN CONTACT ISS VIA HAM RADIO - RESEARCHER BLAMES SATELLITES FOR NIGHT SKY 'POLLUTION' - ESSEX HAM SPECIAL EVENT SUPPORTS NEW HACKSPACE - NEW MICROCONTROLLER EDITOR AT CQ MAGAZINE - SILENT KEY: EAST COAST REFLECTOR'S RICK BEUTNAGEL, N3RRB - BOUVET 3Y0J TRIP GETS ARRL GRANT - NATIONAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE POSTED ON YOUTUBE - […]
    Kevin Trotman
  • Amateur Radio Newsline Report 2290 for Friday September 17th, 2021 September 16, 2021
    - COVID SPURS CANCELLATION OF TOKYO HAM FAIR - IARU REGION 3 OPTS FOR VIRTUAL CONFERENCE - AMSAT SYMPOSIUM MOVES FROM HOTEL INTO VIRTUAL MODE - SPACEX RECOVERY VESSELS NAMED FOR 'BOB AND DOUG' - SPECIAL EVENT CELEBRATES BIRTHDAY OF VOA RELAY STATION - ULTRA-TINY BATTERY SHOWS POWER AND PROMISE - SILENT KEY: CHARLIE BYARS, W5GPO, LONGTIME WEATHER SP […]
    Kevin Trotman
  • Amateur Radio Newsline Report 2289 for Friday September 10th, 2021 September 10, 2021
    - RADIO OPERATORS SUPPORT WILDFIRE ANIMAL RESCUE - GENESIS SATELLITES DESTROYED IN EXPLOSION - MEET ARRL MAXIM AWARD WINNER: KATHERINE FORSON, KT5KMF - US HAMS ACTIVATE THE APPALACHIAN TRAIL - LISATS HAM CLUB TO RETRANSMIT INSPIRATION4 LAUNCH - IN SWITZERLAND, HIGH-FLYING QSOS IN HOT AIR BALLOON - BBC INTERVIEWS DEVELOPER OF WORLD'S FIRST MICROSATELLITE […]
    Kevin Trotman
  • The K7RA Solar Update September 24, 2021
    Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Last week, we reported a big increase in activity with the daily sunspot number reaching 124, but by the end of that week all sunspots had disappeared. The sun was blank for several days, but sunspots returned on September 19.Average daily sunspot numbers this week were 28.7, which was below the 58.3 average reported a week […]
  • Open-Source Amateur Satellite Work Not Subject to Export Administration Regulation September 23, 2021
    CEO Michelle Thompson, W5NYV, reports that Open Research Institute (ORI) received an advisory opinion from the US Commerce Department Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) on September 2. The letter confirmed that public internet posts regarding open-source amateur satellite communications work are not subject to Export Administration Regulation (EAR). ORI w […]
  • ARRL, RSGB Announce Joint Events to Celebrate Centenary of Ham Radio Transatlantic Success September 23, 2021
    ARRL and the Radio Society of Great Britain will jointly sponsor events to celebrate the achievement of transatlantic communications by radio amateurs 100 years ago.In December 1921, ARRL sent Paul F. Godley, 2ZE, as its representative to listen for amateur signals from North America during the Second Transatlantic Tests. Setting up his listening station in […]
Latest Amateur Radio Posts
Blog Stats
  • 24,312 hits
Post Archives
Follow me on Twitter
%d bloggers like this: