ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA


Welcome to the current issue of “Propagation de K7RA” from Big Island ARRL News.

Views expressed in this Amateur/Ham Radio News summary are those of the reporters and correspondents.

Content, including text, photos, images, and video, provided by Tad Cook (K7RA), W1AW, and HQ ARRL, 225 Main Street, Newington, CT, 06111.

Accessed on 09 July 2019, 0215 UTC, Post 1031.

Source (via email):

Please scroll down to read Tad Cook’s (K7RA) complete report.

ARRL Web site

11:49 AM (4 hours ago)

 to me
ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27  ARLP027
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  July 5, 2019
To all radio amateurs

ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity remains very low. Over the past two weeks only four
days had visible sunspots, so average daily sunspot numbers went
from 6.7 in last week’s report to 1.6 this week.

Average daily solar flux remained the same, moving only from 67.4 to
67.5. Geomagnetic activity was also flat, with average daily
planetary A index changing from 5 to 4.9, and average daily
mid-latitude A index from 5.7 to 5.1.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is also flat, with solar
flux at 68 on July 5-12, 67 on July 13-19, 68 on July 20 through
August 3, 69 on August 4-5, 68 on August 6-7, 67 on August 8-15, and
68 on August 16-18.

Predicted planetary A index is 18 and 10 on July 5-6, 5 on July 7-8,
then 10, 15, 12 and 8 on July 9-12, 5 on July 13 through August 1, 8
on August 2, 5 on August 3-5, 8 on August 6-7, and 5 on August 8-18.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the
period July 5-31, 2019.

“Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on July 12-16, 25-26
Quiet to unsettled on July 8-9, 17, 20-21, (27)
Quiet to active on July 10-11, (19, 21, 24)
Unsettled to active on July 6-7, (18, 22-23, 28-31)
Active to disturbed on July 5

“Solar wind will intensify on July 5-7, (8-9,) 10-11, (17-19, 22-24).

“Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

“Next Geomagnetic activity forecast will be issued on July 18.”

Thanks to N7SO for this site: reported this week that a sunspot from new (next)
Solar Cycle 25 appeared briefly on July 1. This is based on the
polarity of the sunspot (which was visible so briefly that it was
not assigned a number), opposite from spots from current Solar Cycle 24.

So far Solar Cycle 25 sunspots appeared on December 20, 2016, April 8 and
November 17, 2018, May 28 and July 1, 2018.

Several months ago some new solar cycle predictions were published.
Note there is no expectation for another Maunder Minimum:

On July 1 K1HTV made what may be the first documented Trans-Atlantic
50 MHz 2-way contacts using the new FT4 mode. At 1854Z the first FT4
QSO was completed with F5SSD and 5 minutes later, with IZ8WGU.

Wayne, W2ZDP in Clinton, North Carolina reports: “On 7/1/19,
starting about 1400Z, when I first noticed it at my location in
FM04, 6 meter FT8 was like 20 meter FT8, with Europe coming in all
day long, lasting until about 2000Z

“I’m sure that I’m not the only one to comment on this but I only
have a modest 6 meter station, 100 watts to a 4 element beam at 30
feet. I have never witnessed such a prolific opening to Europe since
I moved from FN02 to FM04.

“When was all said and done, I managed to work 14 countries and 22
grids. This would have been a normal day on 17 meters but on

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at,

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at, For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at

Sunspot numbers for June 27 through July 3, 2019 were 11, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 1.6. 10.7 cm flux was 67, 68.1, 67.6,
67.4, 68.2, 67.3, and 66.9, with a mean of 67.5. Estimated planetary
A indices were 4, 4, 3, 4, 9, 5, and 5, with a mean of 4.9. Middle
latitude A index was 4, 5, 3, 3, 10, 5, and 6, with a mean of 5.1.


Hawaii Island Amateur/Ham Radio News:

According to ARRL Pacific Section Manager Joseph Speroni

(AH0A), the next Hawaii QSO Party will be held on 23-25

August 2019.  Joe says “There will be a lot of activity out there

to work…Exchange is a signal report and your Hawaii district.”


“Grid Madness 2019”, the Hawaii Island-based VHF/UHF Simplex

Contest, is set for 15 September 2019, 1300-1700 HST.


For the latest Amateur/Ham Radio news and information, please

check the blog sidebars and links.  These news feeds are updated

daily and weekly.  Thanks for joining us today.

Aloha es 73 de Russell Roberts (KH6JRM)

Public Information Coordinator

Hawaii County, ARRL Pacific Section

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