Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032


Accessed on 11 August 2018, 0836 UTC, Post #652.

Source:

QST de W1AW and HQ ARRL, Newington, CT, 06111.

Author: Tad Cook (K7RA).

Here’s the latest propagation information from Tad Cook (K7RA) and his staff of volunteer observers.  Views expressed in this propagation forecast are those of the reporters and correspondents.

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032
ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP32
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32  ARLP032
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  August 10, 2018
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP032
ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

Spaceweather.com reported on August 8, 2018 that "Solar minimum
conditions are in effect.  The sun has been without sunspots for 39
of the past 42 days.  To find a similar stretch of blank suns, you
have to go back to 2009 when the sun was experiencing the deepest
solar minimum in a century.  Solar minimum has returned, bringing
extra cosmic rays, long-lasting holes in the sun's atmosphere, and
strangely pink auroras."

For the third week in a row, we report an average daily sunspot
number of 1.6.  Why? It seems that in the past three reporting
periods (including this week) there was only one day with any
sunspots and each time that daily sunspot number was 11.

Average daily solar flux rose slightly from 68 to 69.7, while
average daily planetary A index rose from 5 to 5.7, and average
mid-latitude A index changed from 5.1 to 6.9.

Predicted solar flux is 70 on August 10, 69 on August 11 to 22, 70
on August 23 to 31, 69 on September 1 to 18, and 70 on September 19
to 23.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on August 10 and 11, then 8, 10, 8,
5, 12, and 10 on August 12 to 17, 5 on August 18 and 19, then 20 and
12 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 through September 1, then 8,
12, 12 and 8 on September 2 to 5, 5 on September 6 and 7, 8 on
September 8 and 9, 5 on September 10 and 11, then 8 and 12 on
September 12 and 13, 5 on September 14 and 15, then 20 and 12 on
September 16 and 17, and 5 on September 18 to 23.

OK1HH sent us this:

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 10 to September
5, 2018.

Geomagnetic field will be: 
Quiet on August 15, 22 to 24, 30 
Quiet to unsettled on August 10, 12, 18, 25 to 29, September 2, 4 
and 5 
Quiet to active on August 11, 13 and 14, 21, September 1, 3 
Unsettled to active on August 16 and 17 
Active to disturbed 19 and 20

Solar wind will intensify on August (16 to 19), 20 to 22, 28 to 30

Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Reliability of predictions remains low."

Dick Ferry, K2KA in Westford, Massachusetts had this six meter
report:

"On August 4, 2018 we had another epic opening on 6M from the east
coast.  From 2129z to 2254z EU stations were coming in on FT8.  So
many I had to scroll the receive window.  I worked three new
countries, SV9, E73, and YT9.  Heard many more I couldn't work: 4X,
OD5, ZB, LY, OZ, TK, and UT7."

"Not quite as good as the June 13, 2016 opening which lasted over 3
hours.  But very good.  Sometimes it is very hard to work DX on FT8
when there is a lot of QSB.  It's luck to catch the signals right.
This opening was solid though with signals as high as +10."

John Pieszcynski, W2FV wrote,

"I lamented to my wife that not only do I have to deal with low
sunspots and a new QTH in the Pacific NW (WA state), I now have to
battle holes in the ionosphere!  Thank God for FT8."

https://bit.ly/2AUXDu4

Tamitha Skov sent this report on Thursday, August 9:

https://bit.ly/2M5Imvz

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for August 2 through 8, 2018 were 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
and 0, with a mean of 1.6.  10.7 cm flux was 69.9, 70.2, 70.4, 69.2,
69.1, 69.5, and 69.6, with a mean of 69.7.  Estimated planetary A
indices were 6, 6, 5, 4, 4, 10, and 5, with a mean of 5.7.  
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 6, 8, 6, 5, 11, and 6, with
a mean of 6.9.
NNNN
/EX